5 Years After Pancreatitis Diagnosis, Cancer Risk Still High

Although chronic pancreatitis is associated with a higher risk of pancreatic cancer, the risk declines after 5 years, according to a recent analysis.

Existing evidence has indicated that chronic pancreatitis affects the risk for pancreatic cancer, but the magnitude and temporality of this risk is unknown. To explore this association, the researchers examined 13 studies that had evaluated the relationship between chronic pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer. Study data was obtained via MEDLINE and EMBASE.
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A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate overall effect estimates (EEs). EEs were subsequently categorized by length of follow-up from chronic pancreatitis diagnosis to pancreatic cancer diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the results.

Ultimately, the researchers found that chronic pancreatitis is associated with a higher risk of pancreatic cancer within 2 years of chronic pancreatitis diagnosis (EE = 16.16). However, this risk decreases after 5 years (EE = 7.90) and 9 years (EE = 3.53).

“In conclusion, chronic pancreatitis increases the risk of pancreatic cancer, but the association diminishes with long-term follow-up,” the researchers said. “Five years after diagnosis, chronic pancreatitis patients [still] have a nearly 8-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer. We suggest that common practice on inducing a 2-year lag period in these studies may not be sufficient. We also recommend a close follow-up in the first years following a diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis to avoid overlooking pancreatic cancer.”

—Christina Vogt

Reference:

Kirkegård J, Mortensen FV, Cronin-Fenton D. Chronic pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Am J Gastroenterol. 2017;112:1366-1372. doi:10.1038/ajg.2017.218.