Pediatric Asthma Prediction Is More Accurate With New Tool
The newly developed Pediatric Asthma Risk Score (PARS) is now the most accurate tool in predicting asthma in young children, according to the researchers of a new study.1
PARS, which the researchers constructed by integrating demographic and clinical data, was found to better predict asthma in children with mild to moderate asthma risk than the Asthma Predictive Index (API).
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This is significant because these children are the most common and most difficult to predict and might be the most amenable to prevention strategies,” the researchers said.
To develop and test the new risk score, the researchers used data from the Cincinnati Childhood Allergy and Air Pollution Study birth cohort to identify factors that predicted asthma development.
In all, data on 762 infants born between 2001 and 2003 in Cincinnati and northern Kentucky who had parents with at least 1 allergy symptom were analyzed.
The participants were examined annually at ages 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7 years for the development of allergic disease.
Among the participants, PARS reliably predicted asthma development with 0.77 specificity and 0.68 sensitivity—an 11% increase in sensitivity over the API.
While both PARS and API predicted asthma in participants who were high-risk for asthma, the PARS was better able to predict asthma in participants with mild to moderate asthma risk.
After replicating PARS in the Isle of Wight birth cohort, the researchers deemed the measurement a robust, valid, and generalizable asthma predictive tool.
“Our PARS model either outperforms and/or is less invasive than 30 existing models intended to predict asthma development,” said Dr Khurana Hershey, director of Asthma Research at Cincinnati Children’s and senior author of the study. “The PARS also may be more clinically useful and applicable in an office setting.”2
—Colleen Murphy
References:
1. Biagini Myers JM, Schauberger E, He H, et al. A Pediatric Asthma Risk Score to better predict asthma development in young children [published online December 13, 2018]. J Allergy Clin Immunol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2018.09.037.
2. Scientists create most accurate tool yet developed to predict asthma in young children [press release]. Cincinnati, OH: Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center; December 13, 2018. https://www.cincinnatichildrens.org/news/release/2018/predict-asthma. Accessed December 13, 2018.